[Source: Reuters]

Russia will take years to replace nuclear-capable bomber planes that were hit in Ukrainian drone strikes last weekend, according to Western military aviation experts, straining a modernisation programme that is already delayed.

Satellite photos of airfields in Siberia and Russia’s far north show extensive damage from the attacks, with several aircraft completely burnt out, although there are conflicting versions of the total number destroyed or damaged.

The United States assesses that up to 20 warplanes were hit – around half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy – and around 10 were destroyed, two U.S. officials told Reuters.

The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence.

The strikes – prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed “Spider’s Web“, and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks – dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might.

In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia’s nuclear strike capability, which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles.

However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London.

The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic, and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia’s Western adversaries.

Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers.

He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend’s attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war – one shot down and the others struck while on the ground.

These losses “will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity,” Bronk told Reuters.

Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

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