News

Trade tensions drive down global growth forecasts

June 5, 2025 9:27 am

The Reserve Bank of Fiji has warned that global economic growth would slow over the next two years.

In its May Economic Review, the RBF stated that growth for this year was forecast at 2.8 percent, down by 0.5 percentage points.

The outlook for 2026 was also lowered to 3.0 percent, down 0.3 points from earlier forecasts.
The RBF said the downgrade was due to rising trade tensions and sudden policy changes, especially between the United States and China.

These tensions also affected the economic outlook for Fiji’s trading partners.
Higher tariffs were expected to push prices up. Inflation in advanced economies was forecast to rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2025.
For developing countries, inflation was expected to drop slightly by 0.1 points.
Commodity prices showed mixed trends. Brent crude oil prices fell 15.5 percent in April to a four-year low of US$63.12 a barrel.

The RBF said the fall was due to concerns over global growth and weaker energy demand. There were also signals that Saudi Arabia might raise oil supply under OPEC+.
Sugar prices dropped 8.5 percent to 17.25 US cents per pound, due to strong output from Brazil and Thailand.

In contrast, global food prices rose for the third month in a row, increasing by 1.0 percent. This was driven by tight supply and high demand for cereals, dairy, and meat.
Gold prices rose 7.7 percent in April to US$3,319.10 per fine ounce.

The RBF said the increase reflected a weaker US dollar and ongoing trade worries.

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