Nikhil Aiyush Kumar 
The country’s economy is now forecast to grow by 3.4 per cent this year.
This is a slight lift from the June projection and marks the fourth consecutive year of expansion.
Reserve Bank Governor and Macroeconomic Committee Chair Ariff Ali states the outlook has strengthened as global conditions ease.
He notes that fears over higher US tariffs have settled after talks with the US Trade Representative led to a reduced 15 per cent tariff instead of the earlier expected 32 per cent, giving exporters some breathing space.
He adds that the IMF has also raised its global growth outlook for 2025 to 3.2 percent.
The Committee’s projections now use the updated 2019 GDP base released by the Bureau of Statistics in September.
The rebasing reflects shifts in the country’s economic structure, consumption habits and new industries, replacing the previous 2014 base.
Local data for the first ten months show solid consumption, driven by higher incomes, remittances and government spending.
The recent VAT cut has helped ease pressure on households. Investment is climbing, supported by more construction across the public and private sectors, shown in higher permit numbers, rising project values and continued lending under a supportive monetary stance.
Several sectors have had their outlooks revised upward. Forestry and logging are expected to improve with higher pine and mahogany output.
Public administration has been lifted after the civil service pay rise in the 2025–2026 Budget.
Wholesale and retail trade, along with construction have also recorded stronger activity since the second quarter.
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