Visitor arrivals are forecast to be flat in 2025

The Fijian economy is expected to grow by 3.2 percent this year, marginally lower than the 3.4 percent forecast earlier.

The downward revision has been made by the Reserve Bank of Fiji’s Macroeconomic Committee after undertaking a robust assessment of the economy.

Committee Chair, Ariff Ali, says a number of factors have been taken into consideration.

Domestically, data for the first five months have been generally positive except for visitor arrivals.

Ali says the Committee’s earlier assessment was that visitor arrivals would further rise by four percent this year, following record arrivals in 2024.

However, he says based on the recent trend and industry feedback, visitor arrivals are now forecast to be flat in 2025.

Ali adds that on the upside, government expenditure has boosted demand, and expectations are that the upcoming National Budget will remain supportive of growth.

Consumption remains strong, while accommodative monetary policy is supportive of investment activity.

Ali adds that partial indicators such as domestic VAT collections, wage and salary employment, remittances, and bank credit show notable growth and support the revised economic projection.

Ali says taking these factors into account, including the global slowdown, the economic growth forecast has been revised downward.

For 2026 and 2027, Ali says growth is expected to be broad-based and return to its long-term trend of around three percent.

He adds that the service sectors remain the main contributors to growth, followed by the industrial and primary sectors.

The Committee has also reviewed the 2024 growth rate, and the economy is now estimated to have expanded by four percent.

He says the key drivers of economic growth were the public administration, transport & storage, accommodation, ICT, wholesale & retail trade, financial services, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors.

The Chair clarified that the Gross Value Added contribution to growth for 2024 was 2.3 percentage points, while indirect taxes account for 1.7 percentage points of the growth outturn.

The Committee will review these projections in the last quarter of 2025.

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