Fijians are being urged to remain calm but plan ahead as global markets monitor rising tensions in the Middle East.

ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says the conflict could push up global oil prices, which may eventually affect fuel costs and the overall cost of living in Fiji.

Sen explains the most immediate impact will likely be higher fuel and gas prices, although the full effect may not be seen right away.

He says fuel prices in Fiji are adjusted monthly based on the cost of fuel imported the previous month, meaning some fuel currently in the country may have been purchased before the recent spike in global oil markets.

“So it is possible that some of the fuel that was brought into this country this month was probably contracted at a cheaper price. But by 1st of May 2026, you will see the full impact of the recent increases of price release we’ve seen in the oil market. So my estimate is Fiji’s motorists are probably looking at paying $0.25 more at the petrol bazaar over the next two months.

Sen estimates motorists could see petrol prices rise by about 25 cents per litre over the next two months, potentially pushing prices in urban areas to around $2.70 per litre by May, up from the current $2.44.

He adds that even if the conflict ends quickly, prices may remain elevated as oil shipments through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz may take time to return to normal.

Sen warns that if the conflict escalates, Fiji could face wider inflation pressures similar to 2022 when the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed global oil prices above US$100 per barrel.

During that period, petrol prices in Fiji reached $3.68 per litre, while food prices rose 6.4 percent, transport costs increased around 20 percent, and overall inflation climbed above 6 percent.

Higher fuel costs could also affect travel and tourism, with rising aviation fuel prices likely pushing up airfares, particularly for travellers from key markets such as Australia.

Sen says the situation highlights the vulnerability of Pacific countries that rely heavily on imported fossil fuels and stresses the need to accelerate the shift toward renewable energy.

For now, he advises households to remain calm, manage their budgets carefully and rely on support systems such as remittances while the situation continues to unfold.

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