Kirisitiana Uluwai 
The World Trade Organization warns members, including Fiji and the Pacific, of the risks of trade fragmentation.
The WTO forecasts that fragmentation will likely reduce long-term global Gross Domestic Product proving costly for all economies, particularly poorer ones.
Director General Doctor Okonjo-Iweala says their economists estimate the Pacific will be a critical casualty and calls for multi-lateral cooperation.
“If the global economy decouples into two self-contained blocs, long-term global GDP will decrease by at least 5% worse than the damage from the financial crisis of 2008–09. The IMF has found that some developing economies would in fact face double-digit welfare losses. Your region, where global supply chains are an important contributor to its economic success, would no doubt be also impacted.”
[Director General Doctor Okonjo-Iweala]
The Reserve Bank of Fiji’s April forecast shows that geo-economic fragmentation is downgrading the global growth forecast by 0.1% points to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024.
The WTO is dealing with issues of the end of globalization, re-shoring and friend-shoring, elements that have the potential to harm the multi-lateral trading model.
Recent global data indicate that economic fragilities are taking shape, and sticky inflation is keeping monetary policy restrictive, further denting growth prospects.
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