The Pacific Asia Travel Association in its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts says more tourists are predicted to arrive in Fiji during the third quarter of the year than at other times.

In its latest report the PATA says a seasonality pattern is apparent for the inbound regions of Fiji, and seasonal growth is forecast for all of these amid the worldwide lifting of COVID-related border controls and travel restrictions.

The authors of the report say over the forecast period, the impact of COVID-19 is predicted to slowly fade.

They say while international visitor numbers are forecast to increase significantly to 2025, it is now the slower global economic conditions that will present new challenges to the inbound visitor market of Fiji.

The report states that with the reopening of numerous source markets and the general removal of pandemic-induced social restrictions, the inbound visitor market bottomed out in 2021, with annual growth returning in 2022.

In the long run, however, the report states the international visitor arrivals increases to 2025 are likely to be determined largely by consumer and business confidence.

The report highlights that under the mild, medium, and severe scenarios, aggregate visitor arrival numbers are forecast to reach 1.32, 1.07 and 0.92 million in 2025 respectively, higher in each case than the pre-pandemic level of 2019.

Three scenarios were developed for Fiji, based on the latest information on the economic situation, the degree of reopening of the major source markets and the reduction of various social restrictions.

Fiji will continue to receive visitors from its top five source markets which includes Australia, USA, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom.

Over the forecast period, as the impact of COVID-19 fades, the relative shares of these top five source markets of 2022, are projected to become reasonably stable.

Australia, the largest of these in 2022, is forecast to have a reduction in its relative share of IVAs, falling from 54.24% in 2022, to 39.32%, 39.95% and 40.13% in 2025, under the mild, medium, and severe scenarios, respectively.

Similarly, the visitor shares of the USA are projected to have a similar pattern over the forecast period, while those of New Zealand are predicted to have a slight increase across all three scenarios by the end of 2025.

The visitor shares of Canada and the United Kingdom were both less than two percent in 2022, and this is forecast to remain roughly similar to 2025, although with some slight minor changes over the years.

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