World

Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in new poll

September 25, 2026 10:27 am

source: Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da ​Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead ‌over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential runoff ahead of October’s election, a Datafolha ​poll showed on Thursday.

In a simulated ​runoff, Lula would receive 47% of the vote compared ⁠with 45% for Bolsonaro. A previous Datafolha ​poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by ​46% to 44%.

The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of ​error of 2 percentage points.
In a first-round ​scenario, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed ‌by ⁠Bolsonaro (36%), Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (4%) and Renan Santos (3%).

The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39% against the right-wing senator’s 36%.

Senator ​Bolsonaro is the ​eldest ⁠son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year ​prison sentence for attempting to overturn ​his ⁠2022 election defeat to Lula.

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If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in ⁠the ​first round, the two frontrunners ​advance to a runoff.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September ​22-23.