Praneeta Prakash 
[File Photo]
Tropical cyclones pose a threat to every island in Fiji, with no region consistently safe.
The Fiji Meteorological Service forecasts one to two cyclones during the 2025–2026 season, with one likely to reach Category three to five.
Scientific Officer Climatology Jasneel Chandra said the risk was the same across Fiji due to the close proximity of the islands and the variability of cyclone tracks.
“This is because Fiji islands are close together when cyclone enters Fiji’s area. So any island group can be affected. That’s why we have equal risk. Also because the track changes every season. So there is no single division or any region that is always a safe island.”
Chandra explains the forecast is based on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which influences cyclone formation in the South Pacific.
He adds that global climate models suggest the season may be driven by a weak La Niña event.
“That simply means that there is a chance that La Lina may develop in the coming months. Looking at the global climate models, they suggest that 2025-2026 tropical cyclone is likely to be driven by a weak La Lina event Based on this Enso outlook, we have developed our TC outlook.”
Historical records show cyclone season in the South Pacific runs from November to April with peak activity from January to February.
Chandra notes that out-of-season cyclones, while rare cannot be ruled out.
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