ropical Disturbance 04F is expected to gradually intensify into a Tropical Depression by this evening and further intensify into a category 1 cyclone by tomorrow evening.

Tropical Disturbance 04F is expected to gradually intensify into a Tropical Depression by this evening and further intensify into a category 1 cyclone by tomorrow evening.

At midday, TD04F was located about 725km west of Rotuma.

Brief ON #TD04F this morning:
NEOC Activated at 8am☑️
Lau Damage Assessment on hold ⚠️
Public are urged to take necessary PRECAUTIONS ⚠️ https://t.co/uCAfWUpqKN

— Fiji National Disaster Management Office (@FijiNDMO) January 15, 2020

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It is currently moving eastwards at about 19km/hr.

On this track, the centre is expected to be located about 580km west of Rotuma at 12am tomorrow and about 374km west of Rotuma at 12pm tomorrow.

Most forecast models are indicating TD04F will track towards Vanua Levu as a category 1 Tropical Cyclone on Friday and could possibly intensify further to a category 2 system.

Close to its centre TD04F is expected to have average winds of up to 40km/hr with momentary gusts to 60km/hr.

A heavy rain with squally thunderstorms and strong winds is anticipated especially over Vanua Levu from later today becoming gale-force winds from later tomorrow.

For Rotuma: Expect moderate to fresh northeast winds.

#TD04F is expected to gradually intensify into a Tropical Cyclone this evening. https://t.co/la3bNsllWT

— Fiji National Disaster Management Office (@FijiNDMO) January 15, 2020

Winds expected to become strong with average speeds of 45km/hr with momentary gusts to 65km/hr from tomorrow afternoon and further increase to damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 65km/hr and momentary gusts to 95km/hr from tomorrow night.

Sea flooding should be expected along with coastal areas especially during high tides on the onset of gale-force winds.

Mariners can expect northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with rough seas and moderate to heavy northwesterly swells.
Winds expected to further increase up to 35 knots from tomorrow with very rough to high seas and damaging northwesterly swells.

For Yasawa and Mamanuca group, Viti Levu, Lomaiviti group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby islands, northern Lau group, expect occasional showers.

Isolated heavy falls and thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon or evening.

Showers expected to increase to rain and become frequent and heavy with squally thunderstorms from this evening.

Elsewhere, expect cloudy periods with isolated afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms.

Isolated heavy falls expected.

Localised heavy falls may lead to flash flooding of low lying areas.

By Friday, periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms is expected over Vanua Levu, Taveuni, nearby smaller islands, Viti Levu, Yasawa and Mamanuca group, Lomaiviti and Northern Lau group.

Occasional rain and few thunderstorms elsewhere.

In anticipation of this, the following alert and warning is currently in place:

A “Tropical Cyclone Alert” remains in force for Rotuma.

A “Heavy Rain Alert” remains in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Viti Levu, Lomaiviti Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands and northern Lau Group.

The public are advised to remain alert and vigilant and take warnings and advisories from relevant authorities seriously.